Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.047688 0.054162 0.061391 0.070097 0.080349 0.092093 0.106651
2025-12-21 0.035495 0.042869 0.051750 0.063344 0.078245 0.096976 0.122668
2025-12-28 0.029383 0.037468 0.047885 0.062529 0.082976 0.111118 0.153876
2026-01-04 0.025210 0.033786 0.045549 0.063294 0.090161 0.130671 0.199161
2026-01-11 0.021601 0.030265 0.042845 0.063099 0.096223 0.150836 0.253764
2026-01-18 0.018681 0.027256 0.040373 0.062831 0.102392 0.173671 0.323930
2026-01-25 0.015969 0.024133 0.037204 0.060848 0.105427 0.192743 0.398084
2026-02-01 0.013572 0.021141 0.033755 0.057710 0.105744 0.207420 0.473123
2026-02-08 0.012074 0.019403 0.032131 0.057578 0.112101 0.237849 0.608724
2026-02-15 0.010843 0.017940 0.030754 0.057663 0.119179 0.273838 0.791649
2026-02-22 0.009888 0.016825 0.029835 0.058516 0.128521 0.321024 1.060675
2026-03-01 0.009044 0.015793 0.028904 0.059170 0.137871 0.374465 1.423718
2026-03-08 0.008100 0.014465 0.027217 0.057878 0.142288 0.417903 1.822865
2026-03-15 0.007031 0.012759 0.024488 0.053532 0.136915 0.426625 2.073639
2026-03-22 0.006467 0.011992 0.023651 0.053719 0.145269 0.493076 2.822589
2026-03-29 0.006053 0.011478 0.023288 0.055083 0.158222 0.590865 4.104369
2026-04-05 0.005625 0.010877 0.022634 0.055530 0.168620 0.689595 5.825702
2026-04-12 0.005234 0.010309 0.021969 0.055811 0.178880 0.801341 8.342421
2026-04-19 0.004803 0.009600 0.020853 0.054504 0.182689 0.884527 11.126616
2026-04-26 0.004366 0.008829 0.019474 0.052079 0.181072 0.935657 13.911388
2026-05-03 0.004097 0.008413 0.018939 0.052232 0.190919 1.080769 20.613218
2026-05-10 0.003860 0.008046 0.018477 0.052533 0.201907 1.256183 31.642750
2026-05-17 0.003671 0.007771 0.018218 0.053485 0.216943 1.498588 52.823370